On Sunday, traffic began
flowing freely in Egypt's Tahrir Square for the first time in three
weeks. As schools and businesses re-opened, the country's revolutionary
fervor began to subside. Still, most of the demands of protesters have
not been met. And the longer these problems fester, the greater the risk
of renewed protests and instability. Here are the biggest challenges
the Egyptian military faces in the coming months.
Rewriting the Constitution Egypt's old constitution imposed a number of "
built-in guarantees"
that ensured former President Hosni Mubarak's grip on power and tilted
elections in his party's favor. It also prevented a number of opposition
groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, from participating in
elections. Now, in a communique read on state TV, the Supreme Council of
the Armed forces has promised to appoint a committee to rewrite the
constitution and put the changes to a vote. "The hard part," explains
Steven Taylor at Outside the Beltway, will be "figuring out who to invite to the table" during the negotiating process.
Elections
Giving a vague timeline, the military said in a statement it would
"manage the affairs of the country for a temporary period of six months
or until the end of elections to the upper and lower houses of
parliament, and presidential elections." As Reuters's
Marwa Awad and Dina Zayed
explain, the election will be "complex process." The military's intentions of keeping military rule for six months suggests that
elections should occur sometime between then and now.
Communicating a Game Plan According to
CNN,
leading opposition figures are demanding clear, detailed plans on how
the military will transition Egypt into a democracy. "They need to come
out of their headquarters and start talking to the people and tell us
what is in store for us," Mohamed ElBaradei told CNN. Urging the
government to move quickly, activist Wael Ghonim said the "biggest
mistake now is to give the Egyptian people too little too slow.
Restoring confidence requires a faster pace."
Disentangling the Military's Grip on the Economy As Time's
Aryn Baker
explains, "soldiers staff military-owned companies that produce everything from
olive oil to washing machines, televisions, cement and even the
ubiquitous Safi brand of bottled water. The military owns
land, operates hotels and runs construction companies. Retired generals
are often offered lucrative positions on the boards of private
companies." This deep entrenchment into the workings of society is
troubling, Baker says, because both Egypt's defense minister,
Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, and the military chief of staff, Lieut. General
Sami Hafex Enan, are "vestiges of the old regimes." Baker quotes a
professor of international relations at the London School of Economics
who says "Tantawi is as conservative as Mubarak, and he doesn't believe
in economic or structural change ... He doesn't believe that Egyptians
are ready for democracy."
Job Creation "Political unrest
is virtually certain to flare up again if the ruling military council
fails to create new jobs and kick-start the country's moribund economy,"
writes
Yochi Dreazen
at National Journal. (In fact, some
economy-related protests are already surfacing). He cites a report saying that Egypt's youth are
being hit disproportionately by the country's high unemployment rate, though nearly 900,000 of them holding university degrees. One of the ways
of combating unemployment is to "privatize the military's business
holdings," which Dreazen says "extend into virtually every aspect of
daily life." Unfortunately, whenever this was attempted during Mubarak's
reign, the military resisted such reforms, seeing them as a threat to
its economic health. The military will have to make concessions in that
respect if unemployment is to be assuaged, argues Dreazen.
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