Beau Biden, Delaware's attorney general and the son of Vice President Joe Biden, is increasingly assumed
to be the Democratic nominee for Joe Biden's vacated Senate seat.
Republican Michael Castle, who represents Delaware in the House of
Representatives, has announced
he will run in the 2010 election. It won't be easy for either candidate: A poll out Thursday
shows the two evenly matched. Should Biden run -- a campaign that would
coincide with a slew of 2010 congressional races that are seen as a
collective referendum on his father's White House -- he would no doubt
gain significant national attention. Here are the smart early reads on
- Castle a Formidable Foe David Weigel recounts
Rep. Michael Castle's strong electoral history. "Castle has
been winning elections in the state since Lyndon Johnson was president,
and he won his 9th term last year with 61 percent of the vote," Weigel
writes at the Washington Independent. "Castle has a statistically
insignificant 46-45 lead, bolstered by an
8-point lead among independents and the support of 21 percent of
Democrats. Results like this probably make a Biden run more likely,"
"President Obama's popularity in the state is still sky-high."
- Americans Love Royalty Markous Moulitsas explains
why Biden performs better in the poll than any other Democrat. "Castle
easily leads other potential match ups (Castle 51 Kaufman 37,
Castle 49, Carney 41, Castle 51 Coons 39), but the Biden-Castle one is
most likely because the political establishment loves its monarchies,
and so do the voters," writes Moulitsas, who heads influential liberal
opinion site Daily Kos. "Both Castle and Biden have nearly identical
approval ratings as well,
providing perhaps the most even matchup of the cycle. While some
prognosticators are already slotting this race as a 'lean Republican',
the data suggests this is about as pure a 'toss-up' as you can have in
- It's All About Democrats Taegen Goddard points out Biden's relatively middling performance among Democrats. "Key findings: While Castle has solid Republican support (82% to 9%),
Biden gets less than three-quarters of Democrats (72% to 21%).
Independents lean toward Castle (48% to 40%). If Biden brings Democrats
home, it gets much harder for Castle to win."
- It's All About Young Vs Old Voters Congressional Quarterly's Greg Giroux notes
the split in voters by age group. "Biden, 40, has his highest approval
(71 percent) among voters age 18 to 29, while Castle, 70, get his
strongest mark (68 percent) among voters 60 and over," he writes. Older
voters, of course, are more likely to turn out than young voters. "CQ
Politics currently rates the race Leans Republican."
- Castle Must Demonstrate Centrism Matthew Yglesias thinks Castle has a shot if he can distance himself from the GOP. "Castle is super-popular in Delaware and stands a good chance of
winning. But obviously the Republican leadership as a whole is very
much not popular in Delaware. Will Castle be able to persuade people
that he won’t just be a lockstep obstructionist? If he wins, will he
deliver on that promise and build a more robust moderate wing of his
party’s caucus? Or will his popularity melt away in the cold light of a
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