To veteran political observers it sounds almost inconceivable: could Massachusetts,
through its special election to fill Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat, sink
health care reform? A previous poll
placing Republican candidate Scott Brown within striking distance of
Democratic counterpart Martha Coakley is now being confirmed by more
recent numbers, and previous debate
over whether a Republican win is even possible is giving way to debate
over how likely a win might be, and how Senate Democrats could still
pass health care reform without their filibuster-proof 60 votes. The
special election is a mere week from Tuesday. Here's the discussion--largely among liberal commentators--of the drama:
- 'A Losable Race for Democrats,' Pronounces Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling. "At this point a plurality of those planing to turn out [in the special election] oppose the
health care bill ... Martha Coakley needs to have a coherent message up
on the air over the last ten days that her election is critical to
health care passing and Ted Kennedy's legacy--right now Democrats in
the state are not feeling a sense of urgency." He points out, too, that
"Scott Brown's favorables are up around 60%."
- 'Potentially Devastating to Health Care Reform' The bill passed with 60 votes, says The New Republic's Jonathan Cohn,
"but the Senate isn't finished yet. It will have to sign off on the
final compromise between its bill and the House's version," again
requiring 60 votes. What if Scott Brown wins, replacing temporary
appointee Paul Kirk? "In theory," muses Cohn, "the House
could simply take the bill that passed the Senate in December and
approve it without modification. But that'd be far from optimal: The
Senate bill still has a lot of problems."
- Two Ways to Pass the Bill "The first is simple, if controversial," writes Politico's Ben Smith:
"Get it through between the time the polls close and the new senator is
sworn in." Paul Kirk is game, he notes, for voting for the health care
bill even if Massachusetts elects Brown. Smith calls the other
option--having the House pass the current version of the Senate bill,
which Cohn talks about--
"imaginable," but "a heavy lift on both the left and right of the caucus."
- Actually, There's a Third Option, writes The New Republic's Jonathan Chait: "go back to Olympia Snowe," the Republican senator who originally looked likely to cross the aisle on health care."
- Hang On, Here "Obligatory caveats," points out more conservative Hot Air's Allahpundit:
"PPP [Public Policy Polling, with particularly optimistic numbers for
Scott Brown] got the NY-23 race wildly wrong and doesn't offer any hard
numbers yet to illustrate the trends it's seeing here." Furthermore, he
Bear in mind too that pollsters from both sides of
the aisle have an incentive to spin thing Brown's way. His only chance
of winning is to have Republican turnout hugely
outnumber Democratic turnout; every poll that shows him doing well
fuels hope on the right, which motivates GOP voters, and fuels terror on the left, which motivates Dem voters not to be complacent about the likelihood of victory by staying home.
- Dems Spooked, Either Way Law professor and political commentator William Jacobson thinks
he may have evidence of "push polling," a technique "where under the
guise of a poll the questioner tries to push the interviewee for or
against a candidate ... If Democrats have started push polling against
Brown, that is a sure sign they are worried. And it is a sign that the
last 10 days of the campaign will get quite nasty."
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