The nascent health care reform bill has been dubbed "historic" by members of both parties, who view the bill as a landmark victory or a catastrophic defeat. Though some of the changes won't even go into effect until 2014, liberals and conservatives alike act as if the effects of this bill are set in stone.

Enter Ruth Marcus, who takes a far more cautious approach to the reforms. Arguing no one can completely predict the bill's actual consequences, the Washington Post columnist eschews far-reaching proclamations and crosses her fingers instead.

If I were a member of Congress, my floor speech before casting a yes vote would have boiled down to:

Gee, I hope this works.

Marcus goes on to explore the many uncertainties of health care reform, including whether mortality rates will drop and the net effect on hospital visits. Her message to pundits already engaged in post-mortems is clear: We don't really know anything yet.

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