Policy Polling: They're Now Tied The polling firm reports both
candidates have 43 percent of the vote. PDF of the results here.
PPP's Tom Jensen explains, "Paul is
winning 72% of the Republican vote to Conway's 65% of the Democratic
vote. Kentucky may have the most conservative Democratic voters in the
country. If Conway can get more than 80% of the vote from within his own
party he'll more than likely win this race, but that may be a tall
order when only 58% even of Democrats approve of the President's job
Outlier or New Trend?
Outside the Beltway's Doug Mataconis points out,
"This poll, from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, differs from
recent polls from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA so it’s unclear if we’re looking at an
outlier, or a new trend."
Independents Skeptical of Paul's
Beliefs Politics Daily's Bruce Drake writes,
"Republicans (37 percent of the sample) said Paul's views made it more
likely they would vote for him by a 42 percent to 22 percent margin,
Democrats (52 percent of the sample) said it would make them less likely
by 49 percent to 21 percent and independents (11 percent of the sample)
said it would make them less likely to support Paul by 39 percent to 23
percent, (the balance in each case are undecided). However,
independents overall favor Paul by 45 percent to 35 percent with 20
National Media Exposure Killing Paul Public
Policy Polling's Tom Jensen suggests, "The
more Kentucky voters get to know Rand Paul, the less they like him. When
PPP first polled the race in December Paul's favorability was a +3
spread at 26/23. By May it was a -7 spread at 28/35. Now it's a -8
spread at 34/42. The national media attention Paul has received has hurt
his cause with voters in the state- 38% say it has made them less
likely to support Paul while 29% say it has made them more inclined to
vote for him and 33% say it hasn't had an impact on their attitude
toward Paul one way or the other."
Criticizing Farm Subsidies Is a Killer
Daily Kos chief Markos Moulitsas notes
that Paul has called to ending government farm subsidies. "Putting aside
the merits of such subsidy programs (much of that money goes to massive
agribusiness conglomerates), fact is that it's a political loser in
this heavily agricultural state. Conway can certainly use every
advantage he can get."
Paul Can't Hide from Media
Commentary's Jennifer Rubin writes,
"Paul has a problem. Since his civil rights debacle, he’s largely been
hiding from the media. As a result, he’s not giving voters anything
positive to counter the overwhelmingly negative media coverage he’s
received. He needs to explain his views and assure voters that he’s not
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