Today, seven states and the District of Columbia are holding primaries.
Of particular interest to political observers are the races in Delaware
and New Hampshire, where insurgent Tea Party candidates threaten to
topple the GOP front-runners. In Delaware, Tea Party-backed Christine
O'Donnell is tied with GOP-favorite Mike Castle, according to a recent survey
In New Hampshire, the Tea Party's Ovide Lamontagne is quickly catching
up to Republican Kelly Ayotte. In both cases, the Tea Party candidate is
expected to weaken the Republican's chances in the general election. Is
the Tea Party spoiling Republicans' chance to take over the Senate?
- O'Donnell Wouldn't Likely Win Against a Dem, writes Chris Cillizza
at The Washington Post: "With O'Donnell as the nominee, the Delaware
race would be, at best, a toss up. Again, there's little reliable
general election polling but O'Donnell's personal financial troubles
coupled with her inability to raise significant sums make it hard to
imagine her winning in the Democratic-friendly Delaware. A defeat in
Delaware would force Republicans to run the table in ten states --
Arkansas, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota,
Pennsylvania, Washington State and Wisconsin -- to win the majority.
Possible? Yes. Probable? Absolutely not. And that's why Delaware matters
- But Castle Certainly Would, reports ABC News:
"Rep. Mike Castle is considered a slam dunk to capture Joe Biden's old
Senate seat. Castle is a pro-abortion rights, pro-gun control Republican
who often works with Democrats. Those traits have helped make him the
most popular Republican in a state that leans heavily Democratic; Castle
has twice been elected governor and was elected as Delaware's sole
representative in the House nine times."
- An O'Donnell Win Could Kill GOP Senate Hopes, writes statistics-wonk Nate Silver
at The New York Times: "If Ms. O’Donnell and Mr. Lamontange were both
to win their primaries, however, the Republican chances of a Senate
takeover would fall to just 16 percent, according to the model.
Conversely, if Mr. Castle and Ms. Ayotte were to win, Republicans
chances would rise to 30 percent. Thus, Republican prospects of claiming
the Senate could be nearly halved if both the insurgent candidates were
- This Is Driving a Wedge in the GOP, writes Peter Wallsten
and Devlin Barrett at The Wall Street Journal: "Her candidacy has
divided the tea party movement, with officials from the group
FreedomWorks declining Monday to endorse her. 'We stayed out of that
race because we are not convinced that Christine O'Donnell can win,'
FreedomWorks President Matt Kibbe told reporters."
- This Is All Very Damaging to Castle, writes Allahpundit
at Hot Air: " I wonder if the core argument in favor of Castle —
electability — really applies anymore. Are O’Donnell supporters going to
turn out for the RINO in November if he wins tomorrow? Isn’t the whole
point of DeMint 'true conservatism'
that in a contest between a real Democrat and a fake Republican, it’s
better for conservatism long-term for the Democrat to win? In which
case, why turn out?"
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