"We have nothing to fear from letting the House work its
will—nothing to fear from the battle of ideas...The result will be more
scrutiny and better legislation," said John Boehner in a
National Journal
interview. With the GOP expecting sweeping gains and control of at
least one house of Congress, prognosticators are already guessing how
a Boehner-lead majority will govern. The specifics, of course, will be
determined after the election results are finally tallied in the next
days and weeks. The subject, however, is already being heavily debated among Republican leaders and soon-to-be influential
Tea Party backers. It's also a pressing concern for pundits, who evaluate the possibilities for the new Congress and, naturally, disagree
about almost everything.
- They'll Compromise: If Boehner Has His
Way, Republicans Will Lead More 'Cautiously' In an wide-ranging
interview with National Journal's Major Garrett,
the presumptive House speaker says to the correspondent that "if
given the chance, [he] intends to lead more cautiously
and—significantly—more slowly, than Gingrich did. He will set no
audacious legislative deadlines...and will enact no radical new
technological or procedural reforms." To be able to sell this restrained
agenda to an aggressive and eager class of freshman, Boehner may need
to institute a second "pledge" to America. Boehner is also planning on
proceeding "more slowly and methodically than Republicans did the last
time they captured the House in the landslide of 1994." He appears to
understand, Garrett writes, that popular opinion and election cycles are
"spinning more quickly" than they have in past.
- No They Won't: It's a 'Pleasant Fantasy' To Think GOP Will Be Sensible Washington Monthly's Steve Benen
harbors no illusions that Republicans will be to restrain themselves
when they arrive in power. "Is there any evidence -- any at all -- to
support such an assumption? Not only have GOP leaders spent the last two
years acting like spoiled children, uninterested in any serious policy
work, they've also sent the last two weeks boldly proclaiming their
intention to refuse to compromise with anyone about anything. Indeed,
the number of Republicans talking about shutting down the government
next year is already pretty large, and it's getting bigger."
- They'll
Get Rid of the Tea Party: Abandoning Fringe Ideas and Governing
Center-Right In order to please their Tea Party base, Slate's Jacob Weisberg predicts that "the GOP's congressional leadership will feint right
while legislating closer to the center." What makes this prediction
plausible is that "the House leaders-in-waiting are, by and large,
[aren't an] ideological group." Weisberg argues that "the American
public likes Republican themes of more liberty and less government
better than it likes Democratic themes of compassion and fairness. But
when it comes to the specifics, the situation is reversed." This may
lead to a Republican Congress legislating to the center.
- No They Won't: Tea Partiers Are Forging Major Partnerships A team of Wall Street Journal
reporters provides a lengthy assessment of the state of the Tea Party,
and concludes that the movement is angling to become a more permanent
part of the GOP. While there has been "distrust" between establishment
Republicans and Tea Partiers, they see the "GOP as a good vehicle for
their aspirations—and as GOP establishment candidates were toppled,
party leaders came to embrace the tea-party crowd as well. That
marriage, at least for now, has aided Republicans." The reporters also
observe that many Tea Party organizations are beginning to form
institutions with an eye on influencing policy and financially
supporting candidates they agree with. How they handle this transition
is the key to the movement's permanence.
- The GOP May Compromise and Attempt to Reduce Deficit In a Newsweek cover story (which featured John Boehner getting the Shepard Fairey treatment),
staff editors detail the Republican's probable efforts to govern in an
array of domestic areas (taxes, deficit, health care, climate/energy
among them). With regards to lowering the deficit, the writers consider
the president's bipartisan fiscal commission as the likeliest route to
lowering the deficit: "At that point, the Tea Party–fueled Republican
majority will have to decide whether it’s willing to countenance a
compromise plan that’s likely to combine tax increases with spending
cuts...or if the price of debt reduction is simply too steep."
- No
They Won't: The Deficit Will Be Even Larger "Republicans won’t do much
to rein in spending. And if they cut taxes, there won’t be enough
revenue to fund the budget," figures Cynthia Tucker
at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The result is a deficit that may
be larger in two years. The health insurance law will reduce the deficit
over ten years, not add to it, according to the non-partisan
Congressional Budget Office. But continuing to depress revenues with a
huge tax cut for rich Americans will certainly make the deficit larger,"
she writes.
- Republicans Should Lay the Groundwork for 2012 Weekly Standard editor William Kristol
makes the case for Republicans to "improve lives" in the here-and-now and adopt a patient strategy for 2012. Republicans will "argue that the next
presidential election is decisively important, and that much of the
effort in the next Congress must be viewed as laying the groundwork for
victory in November 2012." In the current session, Kristol notes that "extending the current tax rates...would help the economy right now.
Definitively taking cap and trade and card check off the legislative
table would also help the economy."
- But, They Probably Won't Win in Four Years In a Washington Post contribution Dylan Loewe, a Democratic strategist, notes the silver lining for embattled Democrats: changing voter demographics are on their side (Jonah Goldberg
might disagree). "Tea Party Republicans are a dying demographic.
Populations are shrinking in the South and in rural areas. Massive
growth among Democratic constituencies is expected to be accompanied by
static—and in some cases, declining growth—within the Republican base.
That formula will require the Republican party to change if it wants to
stay a majority party....over the long term, what looks like a
celebration will be more akin to a wake."
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