Mitt Romney is polling just ahead of Rick Santorum in Arizona, with 36 percent to 33 percent, respectively, Public Policy Polling finds. Newt Gingrich has 16 percent. It's risky for Santorum to try and close that gap in the state, however, because the state is winner-take-all, meaning the person who comes in second places gets no delegates. Finishing 1 point or 20 behind Romney is worth the same amount. The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog estimates Romney has about a 71 percent chance of winning Arizona. Though polls have tightened in the past few days, Santorum still has a 57 percent chance of winning Michigan, which also votes February 28, the blog says. But Romney and Santorum are competing for the same kinds of voters in those states. "The 'somewhat conservative' ones are really the swing voters of the GOP electorate and they're leaning towards Romney in both Arizona and Michigan right now," PPP's Tom Jensen writes. Rupert Murdoch clearly thinks Michigan is the state that will be the decider, at least for Santorum. "Win Michigan game over," he tweets.

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Elspeth Reeve