Poll Watch

A Bad Tuesday Ahead for Santorum; Old Men Like Romney a Lot

Associated Press
Elspeth Reeve 531 Views Apr 2, 2012

Tomorrow looks like it's going to be a bad day for Rick Santorum, but Mitt Romney might have a tough couple months with America's ladies. Here's today's polls and why they matter.

Findings: Santorum is likely to be crushed Tuesday. Romney's ahead 52 percent to Santorum's 27 percent in Maryland; Romney's ahead 43 percent to Santorum's 36 percent.
Pollster: Public Policy Polling 
Methodology: Robo-calls to 500 likely Maryland Republican primary voters and to 609 likely Wisconsin Republican primary voters March 31 and April 1.
Why it matters: Wisconsin was designated Santorum's for real for real last chance last week by a few reporters.
Caveat: Romney is ahead by a small enough margin that if his voters stay home, his victory could be unimpressively small or he could lose, The New York Times' Nate Silver says.

Findings: Romney's biggest advantage in the general election is with men over 50, whom he beats Obama by 18 points, Philip Bump points out. Obama beats Romney among men under 50 by 12 points, women under 50 by 30 points, and women over 50 by 6 points.
PollsterUSA Today/ Gallup
Methodology: Survey of 901 registered voters from March 20 to March 26 in 12 swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Why it matters: Women tend to vote Democratic, The Atlantic's Molly Ball points out, which is why Democrats are milking the "Republican War on Women" like crazy. Oddly, social issues aren't the main thing turning women off: Santorum does better with woman against Obama than Romney does. Ball theorizes that Romney's campaign has been trying to reach out to women by getting Ann Romney to talk about the deficit. But women care more about health care.
Caveat: The gender gap disappeared in the 2010 midterms.

Findings: The Supreme Court hearings on Obamacare last week caused more people to think less of the court. While 65 percent had unchanged views, 21 percent said they felt more negatively about the court, while 7 percent viewed it more positively. Democrats and Republicans differed in their reactions, naturally, with 32 percent of Democrats said they liked the court less. An even number of Republicans like the court more or less, but 35 percent said they liked Obamacare less.
PollsterPew Research Center/ The Washington Post
Methodology: Survey of 1,000 adults from March 29 to April 1.
Why it matters: Liberals warned that overturning Obamacare -- which it looked like there was a solid chance the Supreme Court would do, based on the tone of oral arguments -- would make the country see the court as just another Washington collection of partisan hacks. But it appears only liberals think that way.
Caveat: Perhaps more people will be paying attention when the decision is handed down sometime in June.

Want to add to this story? Let us know in comments or send an email to the author at ereeve at theatlantic dot com. You can share ideas for stories on the Open Wire.

Related Articles   More by Elspeth Reeve

Even Santorum Thinks He's Going to Lose Wisconsin

Romney Wins Maryland, D.C.

Romney Wins Wisconsin

 

The IRS Scandal Was First Revealed by an IRS Official Asking to Be Asked About It

So Who Lied to ABC News About the Benghazi Emails?

Elsewhere on the Web

User Comments

Please type your comment and click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be prompted to log in or register

  • The Atlantic Wire on Twitter
  • The Atlantic Wire RSS Feed
  • The Atlantic Wire iPhone App