Poll Watch

The Winner of the VP Debate Is a Toss-up, Too

Reuters
Esther Zuckerman 559 Views Oct 12, 2012

It's unclear who won the vice-presidential debate, and Mitt Romney is leading President Obama in Florida and New Hampshire. Here's a guide to today's polls and why they matter.

Findings: Instant polls following last night's debate conflict as to who was the winner. Ryan won by a slim margin—48 percent to 44 percent—among registered voters, CNN found. But among uncommitted voters, 50 percent gave it to Biden while 31 percent gave it to Ryan, CBS found. Update: Reuters/Ipsos gives Biden a 7-point victory among registered voters.
Pollster: CNN/ORC International, CBS News 
Methodology: For CNN: Landline and cell phone interviews with 381 registered voters who watched the vice presidential debate October 11 with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points. For CBS: Online poll using GfK's KnowledgePanel of 431 uncommitted voters with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points. 
Why it matters: This debate sure was lively, but it's unclear who won. These polls say the same thing. Update: With Reuters, Biden has been judged the winner in two of three polls, but by a far smaller margin than Romney was judged the victor in the presidential debate last week.
Caveat: As The New York Times' Nate Silver points out, these polls "are not directly comparable" and adds "vice-presidential debates rarely move head-to-head numbers between the presidential candidates – even when there is a much clearer verdict in instant-reaction polls. So one should err on the side of caution in assuming that the debate had much influence either way." 


Findings: Romney is ahead by 4 percentage points in Florida, with 51 percent of likely voters' support, Rasmussen finds. American Research Groups poll has Romney up by 3 points in Florida. 
Pollster: Rasmussen, ARG 
Methodology: For Rasmussen: Automated poll of 750 likely voters in Florida October 11 with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. For ARG: Interviews with 600 likely voters October 8 through 11 with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. 
Why it matters: Though Florida is obviously still a close race, it's now leaning a two points in the red in the Real Clear Politics average. Yesterday, Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley moved Florida to Leans Republican
Caveat: Sabato et al. caveat themselves by saying they made the move "even though the polling there still indicates it is a toss-up." 


Findings: Romney is leading Obama by 4 percentage points in New Hampshire.
Pollster: ARG 
Methodology: Interviews with 600 likely voters October 9 through 11 with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. 
Why it matters: New Hampshire was looking to have been leaning Obama, but as recent reports indicate a tightening race in the state, this poll puts Romney in a small lead. 
Caveat: Obama still has a six point lead in a poll in the WMUR Granite State Poll Tuesday, but that was down from a 15 point lead a week prior. 

Want to add to this story? Let us know in comments or send an email to the author at ezuckerman at theatlantic dot com. You can share ideas for stories on the Open Wire.

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